Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio is famous for his stance on illegal immigration. He's also known for his repeated statements that he was going to run for one office or another, convincing nearly no one. On January 9, 2018, he finally made good on that statement when he announced he would join a list, not yet set, of challengers for the seat being mercifully vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake.

But don't throw those hats into the air in celebration just yet. While Arpaio truthfully brags that he has never lost a Primary, no Primary election ever ended the race. That was, and continues to be, the General Election. Stalwart Republican Arpaio supporters have shown a tendency of forgetting the prize is collected in November.

Arpaio, who will be 86 on Primary day, is still two things: beloved by Republicans across the country and sour about his conviction in federal court of discrimination against illegal immigrants. Right-thinking people know Arapio was railroaded, but so what? We have to live in the real world. As we all also know, being convicted and then pardoned does not wipe out the conviction. It simply sets it aside. Much will be made by the democrats in the General election about this.  Remember that voters act on media coverage.

An early and fierce supporter of candidate Trump, Arpaio will likely make that his primary campaign strategy along with his provably correct stance on illegal immigration. Republicans love President Trump, who won the Arizona Presidential Primary by a wide margin.... against other Republicans. The problem with this strategy is that Republicans will vote for Arpaio in the Primary but the General is won by the Independent vote. Need proof? President Trump won the General Election in Arizona by only four points! It should have been by 12 points based on the Presidential Primary.

Arpaio won the Primary in the Sheriff's race by a similar wide margin. Need we remind you of how that General election turned out? Welcome aboard, Sheriff Penzone, best friend of illegal immigrant “guests.” You can look back on our site to that time in 2016 and find that we predicted a win for Arpaio in the Primary and a drubbing in the General. It was, sadly, a very easy prediction given the political climate at the time.

This will be an important election for Arizonans and especially for Republicans.

At this point, just over seven months from the Primary and with candidates like Martha McSally poised to enter the race, Arpaio looks very good to many conservative voters. Political analysts are negative on the Arpaio entry. Political analysts are often wrong. We think they are right about this.

Republican and Independent voters must think about the long game... keeping Arizona red which now is no certainty. We can't do that by voting emotionally as happened in 2016 in the Sheriff's race... and for the record, the Maricopa County Recorder's race. Oh, sure, we hear it all the time, “don't vote for the lesser of two evils.” Let that sink in and then think about what IS the real evil?

While we make an exception for McCain and Flake because they are democrats at heart, is voting for a candidate like, say, McSally, worse than voting for a candidate that realistically has very little chance of winning the Gold Ring in November, thus saddling us with a democrat who loves open borders, welfare programs, big bigger gargantuan government, regulations on everything and possibly turning the Senate over to the democrats who will immediately start impeachment proceedings against President Trump?

Should Arpaio win the General, a long shot to be sure, he would be halfway to 93 when he finishes his first term in 2025. How likely is it that voters will choose a candidate in that age range for a six year job?

Do we really need a repeat of 2016? Or can we just consider that our country is more important than even a beloved former Sheriff.

Like you, we wish things were different.  If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

NOTE: We are by no means supporting McSally but only using her as an example.

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Replies to This Discussion

Joe would better serve the Party and the State by dropping out and supporting someone more likely to win.  Just who that might be is definitely up for grabs!

President Trump has moved from his 1st announced campaign position and now supports, legal status for DACA, possible Comprehensive Immigration for Illegals, Wall only in some areas etc. and stated he'll take all the Heat if this can get done at yesterdays meeting with both sides and press in the room. 

Joe's tough stand is and will always be honored by myself and most who supported him in the past and still honor what he tried to do, but don't know that he'd be able to pull this off, and my fear in all of this is we could end up with McMcSally a McCain clone, and now obviously the fix is in for her from the top as she sat in the meeting spoke once and was the 1st one press spoke to after the meeting, and on the National & Local News last evening, and now more certain than ever this isn't about the GOP candidate but getting so divided that we end up with the Democrat taking the US Senate seat as Penzone did the Sheriff's job.

This is once again a well laid out strategy by the Dems with I might add Aid & Assistance from some in the GOP SWAMP at all Levels, so be very careful about what you wish for as we're playing against a Stacked Deck.

God Bless You All; Clair VAN Steenwyk 

Yes he did but I'm a realist and there's simply no way to deport all of those ppl. He inherited a much bigger problem than anyone knew bc the gov would not tell the truth about how many are here. I hope he puts limitations on it such as no citizenship ever unless they go back to their home country and start from scratch like all others, not allow anyone to stay if they came in the last 20 yrs and stuff like that. It's a way to single out those who came well after we were all more aware of the dangers posed to our country.

The problem with the Republican brand is that we seldom see those with a passion and vigor for the Constitutional rights given to us "by our creator" and yet we rely on words spewed from the mouths of hypocrites and swamp creatures. It's not to say that all Arpairo has done has been such, but we need to face the mirror and ask ... What will it take to keep the Senate seat? It will take youth, articulation, passion, knowledge of Liberty, and common sense Truth laid out constructively point by point. 

Furthermore, Trump would not be so stupid to not know the reality of our choice. All Congressional acts can be repealed by a Democratic controlled House & Senate.  That is what we face. So yes we did vote for Trump "change" to the DC establishment. We voted for our rights over that of a tyrannical insurance fraud with our tax dollars. We voted for immigration "change"... that would enforce existing immigration law.  We didn't vote to expel all illegals or DACA.  We voted to maintain our OWN Citizenship rights over those coming from those 3rd world "holes" who wish to change America "from within" our borders. You stop a leaking garden hose  ... by shutting off the water supply ... not use scotch tape to seal the leak. Don't give away the golden goose ... our Citizenship ... to those outsiders who demonstrate for it, they have no right to it, they have to EARN IT by benefiting OUR society ... not changing it.

I like it.  You have passion and are succinct. 

I have always been an ardent Arpaio supporter from his very first run for Sheriff. But, I saw this last election that he let his ego take center stage over good judgement. We have enough problems in AZ without that and I can't see voting for an 86 yo candidate for a 6 yr job.  Being Senator is a vigorous undertaking and we need a vigorous candidate to win that election. And NOT Sinema who is really our BIG problem. I totally agree with this article.  At some point, everyone has to step aside to let someone else in the door. For Arpaio, that time was 2016

Definitely agreed. 

Let's back up a minute, and look again. At the big picture.  In an attempt to find the real problem.

Joe, or Kelli?  I have absolutely no problem with either, as far as what I believe their positions to be.

I do have a problem with a jonny-come-lately who comes along based on their evaluation of an opportunity such as the Flake retiring.  Kelli will get my support, for this reason alone.  Joe, I know you, and I love you.  But, you are suffering from much of the same thing that many, many conservatives suffer from.  We seem unable to say to ourselves, someone else is fighting the good fight, and I will support them...even though I think I would be able to make a good showing myself.

So, Joe, this particular ball game has already started.  You should not be expecting to come along, bottom of the 7th inning, and decide that now, you want to play too.  Far, far, better for all conservatives for you to call Kelli, and offer your full support to her.  She would appreciate your support, I'm sure, instead of you being just another obstacle for her.  If you would do this, I have no doubt whatsoever, that everyone else could just pack it up and go home, for the race would be a foregone conclusion.  As so often is the case, one of the main reasons why the left wins anything, is because we are to busy arguing amongst ourselves to see the handwriting on the wall.

Joe, it would make a lot more sense, at least to me, for you to help the conservatives in our party to take on the cabal, currently running our Republican Party into the ground.  You, of all the people in our state, might make a difference.  A huge difference, actually.  The cabal, and their bogus bylaws committee is about to take a set of poorly written bylaws that intentionally support the cabal, and tighten their grip on the party.  To the point that many of us are going to consider the party dead in our state.

All one has to do is look at the stats.  We currently are registering far more independents than any other.  The general population does recognize the mess that the cabal is making out of the party.  Democrats don't really count.  Just look at the fact that independents, not really organized at all, yet are doing a far better job in their voter registration numbers.  There is a valid reason!  These people are, absolutely, disgruntled Republicans!  When the McCain cabal changes our bylaws on the 27th of this month, the party will become absolutely useless, and once again, the libs like McCain and his puppets like Kenny, Lines, Flake, Petsas, etc., etc., will destroy our state party.

FWIW, I have done what I can.  I have offered a new set of bylaws for the party.  IMHO, they will die on the vine on the 27th, unless a miracle happens.  You can see my bylaw offering at

Joe, I have two challenges for you:  Help Kelli get elected; and help the conservative party members still in the Republican Party save it from the cabal.

Russ, I thought Kelli Ward was going for McClame's seat. I will vote for her.  Old Joe, isn't he running for the well named Flake seat? Is she running for both seats at the same time? I read where  another candidate is.

As far as Sheriff Joe goes, he should take a seat. He is just too old. I like Joe on immigration, but that's about it.


Sam: The McCain seat was settled when McCain won the Primary and then the General in 2016.  Ward and Arpaio are running to fill the seat being vacated by Flake this time next year.  The Primary election is in August 2018 and the General is in November, 2018.  Martha McSally is expected to announce her entry to that Senate race tomorrow (Friday). Hope that clears up the confusion.

OK, & thank you. You were very helpful. What you said sets me straight.

I hope Joe sits this one out. We are better off with him as a supporter rather than a candidate. I wrote to him saying that just a bit ago. ATM I am Ward all the way.


We hope Arpaio sits this one out too.  Not because we don't like him but because we do. There is a time for all of us to hang it up.  Arpaio's time is here.



My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.
Thomas Jefferson



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