Every two years, we conservatives pack our hearts with hope that this is the year, 2018 Primary, we elect real Constitutional conservatives.  Every two years, we have good candidates to choose from in at least some races.  Every two years we are disappointed again.  Every two years we can depend on one certainty: some low-integrity candidates will resort to the worst tactics to win and low-information voters will fall for it. Here is the run-down for this Primary and a few more predictions.

We all know that Ducey won bigley over Ken Bennett.  Apparently, all the face time Ducey got over the past few days regarding how wonderful Sen. McCain was and how we must honor this hero worked well for him.  He won 70-30 and will now face Democrat David Garcia.  The Republicans voted in larger numbers than the democrats who spent $millions to get out their vote while Republicans coasted through the entire election season so far.  However, we will say that AZGOP, despite their Bylaws, spent time on eblasts supporting Ducey and Martha McSally.  Now begins the post-election cries for a new party.

McSally whipped Ward as we predicted all along.  It's hard to be pragmatists in an emotional world.  Democrats cast 390,236 total votes in this race, Republicans cast 404,364.  There are still provisional votes to count in all races but the ratio is unlikely to change.  The take-away from this is if the feckless AZGOP/Jonathan Lines is as useless in the General as they were in the Primary, Dems could take this seat.  Sinema has polled slightly better than McSally but then, Cinema had no competition.  Money will now flow to McSally and we don't care whether you like the super-RINO or not, if you want President Trump to keep the Senate for the Supreme Court, you'd better get on board with her.  It's time to replace Ginsberg - well past time - so vote smart.  VOTE in this race and be sure everyone you know also votes.  Except the democrats!

In the highly controversial and contested CD1 race, RINO-pretending-to-be-conservative, Wendy Rogers, finally found her Bingo moment with this fifth try at winning a race, any race.  Rogers won by 3198 votes out of 44,188 cast by using smear tactics days before early voting started.   She claimed her closest opponent, who was polling four points ahead of her, was a sex pervert who may have engaged in sex traffiking.  How low one can stoop has been proven!  We hoped voters were smart enough not to fall for this but as we said, disappointed again.  There are not enough provisionals here to change the outcome.  This is a tough district for Republicans since redistricting combined nearly all reservations into it and it uses nearly half the states geographic land.  No Republican has won since.  Wendy won't either.  Is she going to claim tribal presidents or her democrat opponent, Tom O'Halleran, who has done nothing for the tribes in DC, are sex perverts?  Is that all she's got?  O'Halleran got 52,986 votes with no opponent!  Tiffany Shedd, McCain candidate, as we predicted all along, barely moved the needle.

In CD3, Nick Pierson defeated Sergio Arellano.  Voter turn out was nearly even.  This is a district Republicans can take away from Grijalva if they will just come out and vote.  AZGOP is likely to be AWOL again, giving the district back to a guy who never leaves the bars in DC.

In CD8, incumbent by five months, Debbie Lesko, defeated Sandra Dowling.  Even Lesko's tactics were not needed in this race since the margin was 77-23%.  Now we have to hope Lesko learned her lesson in the Special Election she barely won against the democrat: get off your backside and campaign!!

And lastly for the federal races, Steve Ferrara (who?) won handily for the Republican side and has an uphill battle against Democrat Greg Stanton.  At least, Ferrara proved to be an adequate campaigner and does have presence against a guy who is a graduate of charm school.  Yes, that is what sways voters - who makes them feel cozy on the campaign trail.  This district has a Republican advantage.  The problem is the redistricting committee drew wiggly lines to pick up every Republican who never votes! A good GOTV game could pay off for Ferrara.  AZGOP?  Yoohoo, AZGOP?

Disappointment reigned supreme in other state races.  In the Secretary of State race, Steve Gaynor's $1.4million in TV ads worked.  They portrayed Reagan as a ghoul and told substantial lies about her record.  It's not like she didn't have some important mistakes.  He may have won if he had just told the truth but we suppose that was too risky.  We don't want to ever see such a dishonest candidate win but we got presented a couple of truly low-down candidates this year.  Gaynor won by 165,926 votes out of 476,274 for a margin of 67-33%.  Reagan's door was always open to voters and she ran bills that tightened voter fraud issues.  Wonder what Gaynor will do?  He has the edge over Democrat Kathie Hobbs but the democrats REALLY want this seat to go along with the Maricopa County Recorder to effectively prevent any Republicans from winning important seats going forward.  The unopposed Hobbs received 358,027 votes.

In the Superintendent of Public Destruction Instruction, Frank Riggs pulled it out at the end, winning by a meager 1121 votes over Dr. Branch.  Total Republican votes cast: 484,548, just as tight as we predicted.  Diane Douglas came in third with 95,272 votes and she is the incumbent in that race.  She fell for the same reason Michele Reagan fell: bad press and plenty of it.  This was a squeaker all along with only 2.12% difference between the last place finisher and the top place finisher.  Provisional votes could change the outcome here.   They remain mostly uncounted.  Interestingly, Dr. Branch won by 3000 in early voting.  The difference here is this race was run like all races should be: no gimmicks, no dirty tricks, just clean campaigning and may the best CANDIDATE, according to voters, win.  Steve Gaynor and Wendy Rogers might take a lesson here!

In the Az Corporation Race, the only surprise is how badly incumbent, Tom Forese, did.  Of course, he couldn't make up his mind whether to run for Treasurer or ACC and that may have hurt him.  Because of Forese's reputation of being a crook (that is roundly discussed and not our opinion), it's a good thing he came in fourth in a field of five.  Top vote getters were Justin Olson with 182,983 and the democrat turned Republican, Rodney Glassman, second with 167,488.  These two are the winners on the Republican side and will face two Democrat women in November. Jim O'Connor, the conservative favorite due to his excellent portrayal as a true conservative, came in third with 159,674.  This again was a large field and a clean race, as it should be.  The spread here was much larger than in the SPI race of just over 10%.  Now this is very interesting given that the ACC is the most important agency no one knows anything about:  Democrats got 600,596 voter turnout (3 candidates) and Republicans got 736,095 voter turnout, five candidates.

The Legislative races were filled with plenty of drama, also.  But not as big of a deal because these offices are elected every two years. That means a bad politician can be ousted in two years instead of four.  We will do a quick rundown in  only the highly contested ones: 

In LD13, the Ducey appointed, Sine Kerr,won her Senate seat on the Republican side and should win in the general.  She defeated Brent Backus, the AZRA candidate who came in second and the good news is that Don Shooter got his comeuppance in the legislature early this last session and again by voters.  If he had to good grace to stay out of that race, the outcome could have gone to the real conservative!  Republicans never learn.

In LD14 Senate, the dreaded David Gowan pulled out another win for the establishment. 

In LD20, the conservative favorite, Charles Loftus, lost to the incumbent establishment, Paul Boyer.

Even worst and worst of all, the nasty Rick Gray defeated the uber smart and conservative, Randy Miller in LD21.  This really breaks our hearts.  Conservative Republicans, get out and get out the vote for crying out loud!

Another disappointment in LD22, where conservative-turned-establishment, David Livingston, prevailed over Clair Van Steenwyk by 19,975-8441.  Ouch!

We were worried about LD23, too.  Ducey buddy, Timothy Jeffries, and new to political races, gave Michelle Ugenti-Rita and conservatives a scare.  He literally papered the entirety of LD23 with big red and yellow signs.  You could see these signs from outer space!  She leads with 1472 votes and provisionals are unlikely to change that outcome.

In the state House races, this is what happened:

In LD5, the maybe good news is that scofflaw, Paul Mosley, lost his seat.  You may remember that Mosley is constantly on the news for speeding, excessive speeding, like nearly 100mph.  Lawmakers should not be law breakers.  Well deserved.

LD11 voters had the good sense to elect David Cook and Mark Finchem.  Two good conservatives.

LD12 voters were equally out in force to retain two conservatives, Travis Grantham and Warren Petersen.

A surprise in LD13 - incumbent and well-liked Darin Mitchell lost his seat.  Tim Dunn came in first and  Joanne Osborne came in second.  Mitchell lost by 17%.  Four candidates competed here.  This is a strange district that spans part of southwest Maricopa County and north Yuma County.... a truly ignorant way to redistrict.  These two counties have little in common in terms of what the voters care about.  It splits the city of Yuma in half!

In LD16, we were so happy to be rid of Doug Coleman that we would have liked any outcome.  We are pleased that AZRA member, John Fillmore, prevailed in that district.  Republicans own that district in the East Mesa/Apache Junction.

There are no surprises anywhere else in the Legislative races.

So there you have it.  As to how we recommended, we didn't win many.  We recommend based on conservative principles.  These principles are not in high demand these days.  Sad, yes?

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Replies to This Discussion

You forgot LD-17

Former speaker of the house, JD Mesnards mother moved into our district to run. JD's name was listed as to who paid for the mailers. With the former speaker moving on to the senate JD needed to control the house as well. His mother Nora Ellen left her newly elected position on the city Council to run. 

We fought hard for Julie Willoughby to represent us.  The GOP and the laughable neutral chairman of the LD-17 leadership withheld vital information in every count. They even pulled the Advantage walk lists and didn't answer the phones until after dark when we were out walking. Shame on the Bert Moll Chairman of LD-17 and Jonathan Lines for taking our voters right to know the candidates in the race. So many of my precinct non-voters said they don't waste time voting because the races are already decided. I find it hard to argue that point after what I just witnessed.  

No, we did not forget LD17.  That was an uncontested race. Mesnard had no opponent.  We are all, here, well aware of who the establishment candidates are in LD17 even though we recommended Jill Willoughby.  It's a full time job changing ignorant voters' minds.  Conservatives tend to throw in the towel.  The only solution to what happened in LD17 and other districts is for conservatives to become PCs and then SCs.  That at least gets rid of the proxy-carrying establishment miscreants as the majority who control AZGOP elections and give us people like Graham and Lines.  And Mesnard and Gowan!  But thanks for your input.

Yeah, Susan. Just wondering about your post. Mesnard's mother moved into his district to be a candidate.  Not illegal and not wrong, just irksome.   I'm not even sure there is a moral problem. Shenanigans like this and what you report is not even news any more. That's all these liberal Rs know how to do.  Shame about the Willoughby lady but that's politics.  We need to get rid of people like your chair like AFA mentioned. Fill those PC seats, vote them out.  Don't wait for them to do what's right. That day won't come.

Well, looks like we won nothing!  McCain died but we now have his female counterpart in McSally!  Looks like Az will not be a help for President Trump!!!    Disgusting!

You think she will take over his NWO agenda?

Another great indepth report from my favorite website for republican news.  It looks to me like we will retain the legislature but with establishment pols. Guess that is better than a blue wave.  VERY irked about the SPI race. Branch is much better and maybe provisionals will bail us out.  No surprise about Bennett except the wide margin. Hate to see that ruffian Rogers win but unlikely she can take the seat to Washington.  I get irritated over ignorant voters who claim to be conservatives and then vote for someone like Gaynor and Rogers. We in Maricopa county know Rogers all too well. They can't tell a conservative from a trash can.

What a sad commentary. Conservative and RINO voters alike voted for the RINOS. And in the case of Gaynor and Rogers they voted for the worst candidates in the race.  Rogers has scant chance to whip O'Halleran. most of the district are tribes and they will vote democrat except Smith could have peeled off some bc of his work with them. Rogers is just another name to them. What kind of voters who heard Rogers garbage ads would vote for her?  Blue wave there now. SMH  Hopeing Branch can pull out in front of Riggs. He is so much better and I don't think Riggs is any better than Douglas. AZGOP has been corrupt for 2 doz years. Randy McPullen was indicted for money laundering RNC money and that was many moons ago. I was a PC then. No one was surprised then and no one is surprised by AZGOP antics now.  They are part of the Blue Wave.

Thank you, AFA, for this very informative report.  Oh, would it not be lovely if more conservatives listened to your always sage advice.

According to the Secretary of States office as of 9:00am there are exactly 0% of the precincts reported in Maricopa County. The numbers have not moved since the first report last night for any of the candidates.  So what is going on that there are no numbers for the State of Maricopa???  I can't find any "news" from the sources as to when, why, how the lack of those numbers will actually effect the final totals or when there will be final totals.  Anyone down there know what is going on???

We wonder if the mess up of the county recorder is the villian.  Most other counties reported as usual.... late.  Some of the polling places in Maricopa didn't open until noon.  Many opened with no team and what workers they had were given 2-3 precincts to handle.  One of our readers left their precinct at 10pm meaning the ballots left at or later than that.  They go to a central drop off location where another team comes around to pick them up.  There is no way these ballots with their receipt slips could have gotten to the recorders tabulation room before midnight.  It's possible they are counting them this morning.  If not this, then we have no idea.  We will contact AZSOS office for info and report back if we get anything.

OK, here is the deal on the reporting.  Some precincts are reporting 100% counted.  Others are so confusing it's hard to say what's up.  Example: one precinct in Maricopa reports Early Ballots: 54   Polling place:  11  Total 9222  100% reported.  Figure that out if you can and let us know how to read this.

This just in directly from AZSOS Michele Reagan (we supported her because she always - always - provides what we ask for, personally!  That will come to an end with Gaynor):

Maricopa County has their own proprietary system separate from the other 14 counties.  Info from them (and Pima) can be sketchy sometimes.  That’s why I was pushing for 1 system for all counties to use.  (Obviously I didn't win that battle!) It's like an iPhone trying to talk to a blackberry.  Michele Reagan

So it seems we were on target with our first guess - Maricopa County Recorder Fontes made a merry mess of his first election.  Maybe he should have spent less time going to schools to register senior students as democrats and a bit more time paying attention to his real resposibilities: making sure to get the elections done right.  Now, let's take back the County Recorder's office in 2020!  As of the writing, 3:54pm, still only 63% of the precincts have been counted.

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