Its surprising how much you can accomplish if you don't care who gets the credit
Every two years, we conservatives pack our hearts with hope that this is the year, 2018 Primary, we elect real Constitutional conservatives. Every two years, we have good candidates to choose from in at least some races. Every two years we are disappointed again. Every two years we can depend on one certainty: some low-integrity candidates will resort to the worst tactics to win and low-information voters will fall for it. Here is the run-down for this Primary and a few more predictions.
We all know that Ducey won bigley over Ken Bennett. Apparently, all the face time Ducey got over the past few days regarding how wonderful Sen. McCain was and how we must honor this hero worked well for him. He won 70-30 and will now face Democrat David Garcia. The Republicans voted in larger numbers than the democrats who spent $millions to get out their vote while Republicans coasted through the entire election season so far. However, we will say that AZGOP, despite their Bylaws, spent time on eblasts supporting Ducey and Martha McSally. Now begins the post-election cries for a new party.
McSally whipped Ward as we predicted all along. It's hard to be pragmatists in an emotional world. Democrats cast 390,236 total votes in this race, Republicans cast 404,364. There are still provisional votes to count in all races but the ratio is unlikely to change. The take-away from this is if the feckless AZGOP/Jonathan Lines is as useless in the General as they were in the Primary, Dems could take this seat. Sinema has polled slightly better than McSally but then, Cinema had no competition. Money will now flow to McSally and we don't care whether you like the super-RINO or not, if you want President Trump to keep the Senate for the Supreme Court, you'd better get on board with her. It's time to replace Ginsberg - well past time - so vote smart. VOTE in this race and be sure everyone you know also votes. Except the democrats!
In the highly controversial and contested CD1 race, RINO-pretending-to-be-conservative, Wendy Rogers, finally found her Bingo moment with this fifth try at winning a race, any race. Rogers won by 3198 votes out of 44,188 cast by using smear tactics days before early voting started. She claimed her closest opponent, who was polling four points ahead of her, was a sex pervert who may have engaged in sex traffiking. How low one can stoop has been proven! We hoped voters were smart enough not to fall for this but as we said, disappointed again. There are not enough provisionals here to change the outcome. This is a tough district for Republicans since redistricting combined nearly all reservations into it and it uses nearly half the states geographic land. No Republican has won since. Wendy won't either. Is she going to claim tribal presidents or her democrat opponent, Tom O'Halleran, who has done nothing for the tribes in DC, are sex perverts? Is that all she's got? O'Halleran got 52,986 votes with no opponent! Tiffany Shedd, McCain candidate, as we predicted all along, barely moved the needle.
In CD3, Nick Pierson defeated Sergio Arellano. Voter turn out was nearly even. This is a district Republicans can take away from Grijalva if they will just come out and vote. AZGOP is likely to be AWOL again, giving the district back to a guy who never leaves the bars in DC.
In CD8, incumbent by five months, Debbie Lesko, defeated Sandra Dowling. Even Lesko's tactics were not needed in this race since the margin was 77-23%. Now we have to hope Lesko learned her lesson in the Special Election she barely won against the democrat: get off your backside and campaign!!
And lastly for the federal races, Steve Ferrara (who?) won handily for the Republican side and has an uphill battle against Democrat Greg Stanton. At least, Ferrara proved to be an adequate campaigner and does have presence against a guy who is a graduate of charm school. Yes, that is what sways voters - who makes them feel cozy on the campaign trail. This district has a Republican advantage. The problem is the redistricting committee drew wiggly lines to pick up every Republican who never votes! A good GOTV game could pay off for Ferrara. AZGOP? Yoohoo, AZGOP?
Disappointment reigned supreme in other state races. In the Secretary of State race, Steve Gaynor's $1.4million in TV ads worked. They portrayed Reagan as a ghoul and told substantial lies about her record. It's not like she didn't have some important mistakes. He may have won if he had just told the truth but we suppose that was too risky. We don't want to ever see such a dishonest candidate win but we got presented a couple of truly low-down candidates this year. Gaynor won by 165,926 votes out of 476,274 for a margin of 67-33%. Reagan's door was always open to voters and she ran bills that tightened voter fraud issues. Wonder what Gaynor will do? He has the edge over Democrat Kathie Hobbs but the democrats REALLY want this seat to go along with the Maricopa County Recorder to effectively prevent any Republicans from winning important seats going forward. The unopposed Hobbs received 358,027 votes.
In the Superintendent of Public Destruction Instruction, Frank Riggs pulled it out at the end, winning by a meager 1121 votes over Dr. Branch. Total Republican votes cast: 484,548, just as tight as we predicted. Diane Douglas came in third with 95,272 votes and she is the incumbent in that race. She fell for the same reason Michele Reagan fell: bad press and plenty of it. This was a squeaker all along with only 2.12% difference between the last place finisher and the top place finisher. Provisional votes could change the outcome here. They remain mostly uncounted. Interestingly, Dr. Branch won by 3000 in early voting. The difference here is this race was run like all races should be: no gimmicks, no dirty tricks, just clean campaigning and may the best CANDIDATE, according to voters, win. Steve Gaynor and Wendy Rogers might take a lesson here!
In the Az Corporation Race, the only surprise is how badly incumbent, Tom Forese, did. Of course, he couldn't make up his mind whether to run for Treasurer or ACC and that may have hurt him. Because of Forese's reputation of being a crook (that is roundly discussed and not our opinion), it's a good thing he came in fourth in a field of five. Top vote getters were Justin Olson with 182,983 and the democrat turned Republican, Rodney Glassman, second with 167,488. These two are the winners on the Republican side and will face two Democrat women in November. Jim O'Connor, the conservative favorite due to his excellent portrayal as a true conservative, came in third with 159,674. This again was a large field and a clean race, as it should be. The spread here was much larger than in the SPI race of just over 10%. Now this is very interesting given that the ACC is the most important agency no one knows anything about: Democrats got 600,596 voter turnout (3 candidates) and Republicans got 736,095 voter turnout, five candidates.
The Legislative races were filled with plenty of drama, also. But not as big of a deal because these offices are elected every two years. That means a bad politician can be ousted in two years instead of four. We will do a quick rundown in only the highly contested ones:
In LD13, the Ducey appointed, Sine Kerr,won her Senate seat on the Republican side and should win in the general. She defeated Brent Backus, the AZRA candidate who came in second and the good news is that Don Shooter got his comeuppance in the legislature early this last session and again by voters. If he had to good grace to stay out of that race, the outcome could have gone to the real conservative! Republicans never learn.
In LD14 Senate, the dreaded David Gowan pulled out another win for the establishment.
In LD20, the conservative favorite, Charles Loftus, lost to the incumbent establishment, Paul Boyer.
Even worst and worst of all, the nasty Rick Gray defeated the uber smart and conservative, Randy Miller in LD21. This really breaks our hearts. Conservative Republicans, get out and get out the vote for crying out loud!
Another disappointment in LD22, where conservative-turned-establishment, David Livingston, prevailed over Clair Van Steenwyk by 19,975-8441. Ouch!
We were worried about LD23, too. Ducey buddy, Timothy Jeffries, and new to political races, gave Michelle Ugenti-Rita and conservatives a scare. He literally papered the entirety of LD23 with big red and yellow signs. You could see these signs from outer space! She leads with 1472 votes and provisionals are unlikely to change that outcome.
In the state House races, this is what happened:
In LD5, the maybe good news is that scofflaw, Paul Mosley, lost his seat. You may remember that Mosley is constantly on the news for speeding, excessive speeding, like nearly 100mph. Lawmakers should not be law breakers. Well deserved.
LD11 voters had the good sense to elect David Cook and Mark Finchem. Two good conservatives.
LD12 voters were equally out in force to retain two conservatives, Travis Grantham and Warren Petersen.
A surprise in LD13 - incumbent and well-liked Darin Mitchell lost his seat. Tim Dunn came in first and Joanne Osborne came in second. Mitchell lost by 17%. Four candidates competed here. This is a strange district that spans part of southwest Maricopa County and north Yuma County.... a truly ignorant way to redistrict. These two counties have little in common in terms of what the voters care about. It splits the city of Yuma in half!
In LD16, we were so happy to be rid of Doug Coleman that we would have liked any outcome. We are pleased that AZRA member, John Fillmore, prevailed in that district. Republicans own that district in the East Mesa/Apache Junction.
There are no surprises anywhere else in the Legislative races.
So there you have it. As to how we recommended, we didn't win many. We recommend based on conservative principles. These principles are not in high demand these days. Sad, yes?
Thanks for your report. One thing that needs either clarification or correction is the claim CD-9 "has a Republican advantage." Here are the numbers of registered voters according to the most recent report:
The target of the Ferrara campaign and Republicans is clear. For him to win, he'll need to swing many independents to cast smart ballots. That's doable, but it will take lots of work. If Stanton wins, it will be virtually impossible to flip the seat in future elections.
George: when the redistricting was done, we were at nearly all hearings. We testified at many. What was done in CD9 and why it is the shape of a fat snake is because data told them who voted and who didn't. At the time, there were more Rs than Ds or Is. The Rs and Is had low turnout for any election. Over the past 8 years, demographics changed and many Rs became Is. Also, it has been an unusually transient district. There are also some but fewer low turnout Ds so with a decent ground game and gargantuous effort, it's doable but it is uphill. Ferrara needs to be ferocious about GOTV.
Thanks for your insight!
You can go to your district chair and get a list that tells you which I's pull republican ballots in the last election, like in 2016, or this one. That is what Ferrara needs to do, isolate the I's to get them to vote R again
The LD13 result is a joke. You may recall Darin Mitchell ran against incumbent Russ Jones 6 years ago and won. Jones took Mitchell to court (and lost) claiming Mitchell didn't live in the district. Sore Loser Jones is now Chair of the Yuma GOP and was, I'm sure, a mover and shaker getting Tim Dunn appointed Rep when Shooter was ousted. I don't ever recall seeing Dunn at our GOP meeting just as I didn't see Jones at a meeting for six years until someone dug him up to run against me for Chair last year when Baby Jonathan decided he couldn't do the job of Yuma County Chair and State Chair at the same time.
People were commenting how radio ads were so negative toward Mitchell and Terry, and Dunn explained they were paid for through independent expenditures. At our GOP meeting last week he mentioned there were those who didn't want Darin Mitchell to be the next Speaker of the House. Well, it looks like the establishment through its filthy pacts or other underhanded means has succeeded in maintaining the status quo.
Meanwhile, back at the Uribe Ranch, I was stumping for my favorite conservatives and not paying a damned bit of attention when the local GOP snuck up on me, filing write-in papers for six (6) write-in candidates to run against me for Precinct Committeeman! I had my head elsewhere and didn't fill those slots myself. I helped fill other PC slots, but not ones in my own Precinct. My bad.
Yuma County, with 44 Precincts, had only one (1) Precinct listed on this ballot with one (1) name -- mine! When I went to vote, there was a list of write-ins for Precinct 39. I garnered 78% of the votes with the write-ins voting for each other, bless their hearts. Now, I suppose they'll have a run-off for the other five (5) seats in Nov. Too bad they didn't have the energy to get their signatures ahead of time like other respecting PCs. BTW, I've never seen any of the write-in candidates at a GOP meeting. Still they'll be proxies carried into the meeting to keep me, once again, from ever being a state committeeman.
These RINOs are slimy. I haven't figured out what their ultimate goal is, but it's not to make Arizona or America great again. The choices made yesterday are almost guaranteed to turn this state blue, and we can thank the Yuma County GOP for having a hand in that.
Well, wonderful. The gift that keeps on giving... the establishment. Even MSN wrote a surprised column about the election and how strange that we all elected establishment candidates. Pointed out CD1 and Gov but said Ducey had it in the bag all along. $$ to burn. Thanks to all who voted for Shedd or Rogers that takes away any hope of gaining that seat from a guy who has literally nothing going for him except he is a D. If by some miracle we can take CD3 again we won't lose ground. Maybe. BTW McSally only won because she didn't have a better challenger. Ward is not a two time loser and that is how it works when we don't field winnable candidates. Don't beat me up for not being a Ward person even tho I voted for her. She is just not big-league.
Disagree that Ward was not a winnable candidate. She was that and more. As usual, any candidate that is not handpicked by John McCain will not win because his swamp buddies put forth a barrage of nasty ads in the final 2 weeks of the campaign. This one was particularly vicious full of nothing but lies and filth that was totally untrue but the stupid voters think that they are seeing them so often they must be true. They brought up every second of time on tv, cable, and radio because they could so they would blast the lies 24/7. Media doesn't care who buys the time and in fact bumped regular advertisers to take the political ads. Every election these "friends of John" have launched these campaigns at the last minute so you can't find out who they are and what money is behind it. These groups are NOT, for the most par,t people in Arizona that have a stake in these elections. This time I have a list of these groups and have identified a lot of them. When the FEC reports are filed in October I will complete the list of "donors", their companies and what they gave to interfere with our election. When it is completed believe me I will share that list extensively and expose them. Stay tuned.
No quarrel with the vicious ads. Same happened with CD1 Rogers and Steve Gaynor who had no platform and won on $1.4mil in untrue ads. However, before those Gaynor ads, internal polling had Reagan well ahead. But internal polling on the senate race had Ward well behind Sinema before the ads started. There is a case to be made that they wouldn't run the ads unless she was close to MM. I give you that. But just two years earlier she got in as candidate #3 and never challenged McCain with no ads needed. How do I know about the polling you might wonder. I was active in the party for years until redistricting moved me to a different district and my health was failing but I have maintained my contacts. No quarrel with you at all about McCain and glad he's gone but his vicious team lingers on. I hope you post your list here on AFA so we call all get it and send it around.
Ward worked her butt off. I am pleased Pat J that you voted for her so thank you for that.
Money trumped message and a vote for McSally was giving win to the likes of Karl Rove.
ALERT: This morning we learned that the Maricopa County Democrat Recorder who made a collosal mess of this election still has not counted 90,000 early ballots turned in on election day. This opens the door to any race that was called by less than 1% to change. We will be watching this throughout today and tomorrow to see if any changes occur.
Impacted races could be the Superintendent race with a margin of .3% or 1192 votes. All other races were won by 2% or more.